This market resolves YES if the following three things happen:

• Kamala Harris loses the 2024 presidential election.

• Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania by between 0% and 1%.

• Had she instead won Pennsylvania, she would have gotten 270 or more electoral votes.

Otherwise, the market resolves NO.

This is intended to be a proxy for "Harris would have counterfactually won the election if she had picked Josh Shapiro instead of Tim Walz".