This market will be resolved based on the final approved fiscal year (FY) 2026 federal budget allocation for EPA water quality programs compared to FY2025 levels.
The resolution will be made based on nominal dollars. If the FY2026 number is 90% of the number in FY2025 or below, this market will resolve "Yes." If it exceeds 90% of the number, the market will resolve No.
Elimination of the programs or the EPA will count as $0 funding. Other ambiguous or unanticipated situations will be up to my judgment.
Since budgets are rarely approved by the October 1 "deadline," I'll advance the close date of this market to the date of the appropriate continuing resolution once such a CR is passed. Usually, it's December or January.
Resolution source: Official EPA budget documents and Congressional appropriations records.
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been extended to January 30, 2026 to align with the continuing resolution (CR) funding date.
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@EricMoyer I extended it until Tuesday because Congress won't be in session so there won't be a chance for a deal.