This market resolves to yes if I or a commenter find at least two trustworthy publications saying that more than 100,000 human infections of H5N1 influenza in the United States. For comparison, typical flu seasons have between 10M and 40M infections. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
The background to this question is a story about possible mammal-to-mammal transmission at a mink farm. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2
Resolution Criteria Minutia:
I am the final judge of "trustworthy." However, my judgment has not been too different from others. As a rule of thumb, and with exceptions for conflicts of interest and obvious bias, mainstream news outlets, major scientific publications, and non-partisan government agencies can put out trustworthy reports.
The multiple reports do not need to be independent. WaPo can repeat a story it got from FOX news and (assuming I believe them) that would count as "at least two"
Related:
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos
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A Google search for h5n1 in news does not return any large human outbreaks reported in the USA. However, among mammals, there were outbreaks in domestic cats, sea lions, black bears, minks, red foxes, seals, and porpoises.
CDC:
Executive summary of report from CDC (updated 29 Dec 2023)
A small number of sporadic human cases of A(H5N1) have been identified since 2022, despite the panzootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses in wild birds and poultry. Nearly all reported human cases since 2022 were associated with poultry exposures, and no cases of mammal-to-human or human-to-human transmission of HPAI A(H5N1) virus have been identified. In a few cases, the source of exposure to HPAI A(H5N1) virus was unknown. To date, HPAI A(H5N1) viruses currently circulating in birds and poultry, with spillover to mammals, and those that have caused human infections do not have the ability to easily bind to receptors that predominate in the human upper respiratory tract. Therefore, the current risk to the public from HPAI A(H5N1) viruses remains low. However, because of the potential for influenza viruses to rapidly evolve and the wide global prevalence of HPAI A(H5N1) viruses in wild birds and poultry outbreaks, continued sporadic human infections are anticipated. Continued comprehensive surveillance of these viruses in wild birds, poultry, mammals, and people worldwide, and frequent reassessments are critical to determine the public health risk, along with ongoing preparedness efforts.