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MANIFOLD
Who will be the first Attention-Is-All-You-Need Coauthor to Return to being employed by Alphabet?
12
Ṁ1kṀ300
resolved Aug 2
100%8%
Noam Shazeer
1.4%
Ashish Vaswani
7%
Niki Parmar
7%
Jakob Uszkoreit
17%
Llion Jones
1.4%
Aidan Gomez
38%
Lukasz Kaiser
6%
Illia Polosukhin
14%
N/A prior to market close

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.03762.pdf was a landmark paper that has had large influence over the deep learning architectures used from 2017-present. At the time of posting, all co-authors have left Google, mostly for OpenAI or various startups. This market bets on which one is the first to return to being employed at Alphabet subsidiary (Google, DeepMind, Waymo, etc) again before 2030.

  • I will do my best to resolve this market via contacts at Google who can confirm whether someone shows up in who/, and with the consent of the employee to confirm their employment (e.g. if public via LinkedIn or other public websites)

  • In the event of a Google acqusition where multiple authors are employed by the same company, I will resolve the answer via np.random.choice on the alphabetized set with the seed using the day of the week (sunday=0, sat=6). Employee has to be an official Google employee for a minimum of 1 business day; the announcement of the acquisition does not resolve the market.

  • In the event that Alphabet ceases to exist (e.g. acquired by another company), this question resolves N/A.

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In the event of a Google acquisition of a company where exactly two choices work, it seems this resolves to the alphabetically earlier choice 5/7 days of the week, or 3/2 days of the workweek.

@dp 3/5*