EDIT: As it stands, this will resolve to market value at some randomly chosen time on Election Day, based on Bad Bunny’s current indication of support.
If he does any of these before then:
makes a formal announcement of support
campaigns for her (doorknocking, phonebanking, or speaking at a rally)
Then I will resolve this to YES.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/power/2024/09/19/bad-bunny-kamala-harris-endorsement/
What would it mean for him to endorse Harris?
"That would be like a Thanos-level event," said Kristian Ramos, another Democratic consultant.
"Like a snap. That's a game-over moment."
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ501 | |
| 2 | Ṁ342 | |
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| 4 | Ṁ220 | |
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import hashlib
text = "I will resolve the Bad Bunny market at 5:23PM ET on Election Day"
hash = hashlib.sha512(text.encode('utf-8')).hexdigest()
print(hash)2200c2a1b46bd99dbdafbafba072bd9182aae30c3770d956dfec306b74243a4ece881cd35d2f420fe846680f2c6dc3446edd5a5d530e4b7396071fdcaecddbe0
My bad, unwittingly used sha512 instead of sha256.
@DanielMacDonaldOs2h Some news sources have reported it as an endorsement. I agree with you though, but I disagree that it's completely objective. I will resolve to market value at a time specified by a message with this SHA-256 hash (I will share message and code used to generate hash later today)2200c2a1b46bd99dbdafbafba072bd9182aae30c3770d956dfec306b74243a4ece881cd35d2f420fe846680f2c6dc3446edd5a5d530e4b7396071fdcaecddbe0
@EricBolton I’m calling my buddy up at the nyt ask him to print an editorial specifically saying it isn’t an endorsement.
I’m actually not bother. This is just fun. But I’d say news source saying he endorsed is like a scientific paper sourcing. A scientific paper that sourced first paper. Like. I get the words were said by a human somewhere but…
Your call my man. Sure you’ll be as fair as you can.
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso Still pondering. Personally I think it's not quite an endorsement. But I'll admit the original intent of my market was to capture a strong signal of support -- which boosting a campaign video and having a PR rep announce he is supporting her certainly are. If I could go back in time I'd rephrase the question to "support or endorse Kamala Harris"
At this point I think I will resolve to market value on Election Day, since this has turned into somewhat of a subjective question. But if he appears at a rally or issues a statement like Taylor Swift's this will be a YES.
@EricBolton So, given current prediction, does it make any sense to bet on NO unless someone's a whale?
@MrLuke255 Best answer I can give is that since I'll pick randomly during the day, a whale has no certainty that people won't respond to their trade before the market resolves. The highest EV bet still will be to bet what the crowd is likely to think.
But that being said, someone could write an entire doctoral thesis about the dynamics of opinion markets, so take my answer with a grain of salt.
“The video Bad Bunny shared with his 45 million Instagram followers shows Harris saying “there’s so much at stake in this election for Puerto Rican voters and for Puerto Rico.” A representative of the artist confirmed that Bad Bunny is supporting Harris.“
@hidetzugu from what i can tell, all he did was share a kamala harris video. i would assume he supports her (and i would have guessed that before), and he might endorse in the next week, but i don't think sharing a harris video is very close to an endorsement
@Ziddletwix yeah, for now we have the video on his insta stories and a vague "A representative of the artist confirmed that Bad Bunny is supporting Harris".
@hidetzugu It's vague indeed, though the Instagram story is worth a watch. (1, 2, 3, 4 if link expires). He boosted a Harris campaign video, zooming in on and emphasizing Kamala Harris saying "I will never forget what Donald Trump did."
My life would definitely be easier if he just appeared at a Harris rally. For the time being, I'm keeping this open, based on what the representative told CNN:
Good on CNN for always double-checking what the AP says.
And lol @ the Guardian's reporting: "A representative for the artist confirmed his endorsement." -- no quote, no source.