What day will the Diamond Scheme end?
13
1.4kṀ15k
resolved Sep 30
100%93%
September 29
0.4%
September 22
0.4%
September 23
0.4%
September 24
0.4%
September 25
0.6%
September 26
0.5%
September 27
1.2%
September 28
3%
September 30
0.5%Other

Predict the mystery date on which Manifold's first Diamond Scheme will end!

I chose the date ahead of time. It will be sometime in the next 9 days. Here's the SHA-256 Hash for the mystery keyphrase revealing the exact time:

5afb323bb546dcfc3d74b8fe4c5d587c1415c0238ebcf4fcb2f68006dda6e8e6

See Diamond Scheme below:

The Diamond Scheme: two Pyramid Schemes in one, but one is reversed. The end game begins… who will win?
💎 Introducing Manifold's First Ever Diamond Scheme: The All-Pay Ponzi Lottery! 💎 Welcome to a fun and not-at-all-evil game of risk and reward! Why "diamond scheme"? Because it is two pyramid schemes in one: One half of entrance fee is divided among previous participants (regular pyramid △) Other half is divided among future participants at game end (reverse pyramid ▽) Are you the calculating early bird or the daring latecomer? Read on... as treasures lie ahead for both! HOW TO JOIN >>> Leave a comment <<< (The only way for me to award bounties) Add Ṁ100 to the bounty: click on the "question details" vertical ellipses ⋮ (top right) and then: [image]RULES 🦅 The Early Bird Bonus: For the valiant pioneers, each new entrant bears gifts. When new players join, half of their stake is divided evenly among those who came before them. The sooner you enter, the greater your potential haul from future entrants. 🏴‍☠️ The Latecomers' Loot: Fashionably late? Fear not! A bounty has been amassed just for you by those early adventurers. The remaining half of each stake will be split evenly among anyone who joins after. ⏳ The September Surprise: Here’s the twist: the game ends on a mystery date in the last week of September (some time before September 30, 11:59:59 AM PT, and after Manifest begins, on September 22 at 10:00 AM PT). Only at that point will the Latecomers' Loot be paid out. The date and time have already been picked. Here's the SHA-256 Hash for the mystery keyphrase revealing the date: 5afb323bb546dcfc3d74b8fe4c5d587c1415c0238ebcf4fcb2f68006dda6e8e6 🐕 Why the Loot will Moon: The Diamond Scheme combines three core mechanics: It mirrors a Ponzi scheme where early entrants benefit most, incentivizing buy-in before the chaotic final week. The unpredictable ending introduces a lottery aspect, where the biggest winners of the Latecomers' Loot remain unclear until the game concludes. In the final week, every player contributes to a growing pot, regardless of whether they "win" (e.g. manage to be the last player), similar to an all-pay auction. Together, these elements incentivize explosive pot growth 🚀🚀🚀 The Diamond Scheme beckons – a game of wit, timing, and chaos. Do you have the mettle to master it and claim your fortune? Buy in... if you dare! 🎲 💎 🔥 🛠 Technical Notes: I'll claim a small Ṁ3 maintenance fee for each new stake (in line with the new participant reward for free-response questions) To claim a stake, you must spend at least Ṁ100 and leave a comment. I can only award a bounty to existing comments. New staked positions will be claimed whenever a player's buy-in reaches a new multiple of Ṁ100. Any remainder will be marked "unclaimed" and distributed at the end of the game Early bird bonuses will be distributed continuously throughout the game as new entrants join Write "minimum_payout=X" in your comment to choose the frequency of your rewards (defaults to 5) This spreadsheet tracks the final payouts for all players Thank you to @CodeandSolder for the inspiration! [link preview]Visualization of eventual payouts: [image]Backstory: [link preview]
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Why are people so bullish on Sep 23? Shouldn't it be uniform?

It should be stated that I will end it as soon as I find some free time after the fact, so there will be a short period of time where it might already have ended and I won’t have made any clear statements of that fact until I’ve run the “end scheme” script which among other things simply refunds anyone who adds bounty thereafter

Oh this shouldn't be free response should it?

@Joshua My bad, I checked "allow self to add answers later."

You have my word that I won't add other answers, and that the market will not be resolving to "Other."

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