What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
28
1.5kṀ8821resolved Dec 6
100%96%
Between 2,000,000 and 5,000,000
0.3%
<1,000,000
3%
Between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000
1.1%
Between 5,000,000 and 10,000,000
0.1%
>10,000,000
Update (11/7): extending market close. Current tally of popular vote difference is 4.65 million. Note (12/20/23): Results of this market have been interesting to me so far. I’m encouraging traders, if they are so inclined, to leave comments about the their thinking process.
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@StevenK It would count as between 1 and 2 mil. Market is solely concerned with the difference between the two top popular vote tallies, independent of who wins the election.