What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential Election๏ธ Politics๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US PoliticsTrumpJoe Biden
Basic
18
แน€546
Nov 7
6%
<1,000,000
18%
Between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000
30%
Between 2,000,000 and 5,000,000
26%
Between 5,000,000 and 10,000,000
20%
>10,000,000

Note (12/20/23): Results of this market have been interesting to me so far. Iโ€™m encouraging traders, if they are so inclined, to leave comments about the their thinking process.

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Is this about the absolute size of the margin or can it go negative? E.g., if the winner has 1.5 million fewer votes than the loser, does that count as <1M or as between 1M and 2M?

@StevenK It would count as between 1 and 2 mil. Market is solely concerned with the difference between the two top popular vote tallies, independent of who wins the election.

typo, 5000 shouldn't be 5000

@asmith Thanks, fixed.

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