Will we be able to generate all stable protein conformations from a sequence by 2027?
8
260Ṁ124Dec 31
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Right now, Alphafold2 generates only the 3D structure for one of many possible protein conformations, with no way of easily guessing the alternative stable confirmations or the free energy associated to them.
As important as structure prediction is, do you think it will be upgraded for the prediction of free energy landscapes before the beginning of 2027?
There must be a scientific consensus, as there is with the effectiveness of alphafold2. Possibly through comparison with the results of molecular dynamics simulations and/or experiments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?
69% chance
Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?
9% chance
Will automated chemical synthesis produce heavy nitrogen/hydrogen versions of every amino acid >50% of sites by EOY 2025
49% chance
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
19% chance
Will it be possible to sequence a full human genome for US$50 by 2026?
16% chance
Will whole genome synthesis be developed for eukaryotic organisms before 2040?
85% chance
Will all extant mammal species have their genome sequenced and assembled by 2035?
14% chance
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
1% chance
Which of these protein targets will have at least one new drug targeting them receive FDA approval between 2025 and 2030
Will we sequence the genomes of >25 IMO/IPHO/IOI/ICHO gold medalists by EOY2028
49% chance