Will one-boxers be more aligned with the Pope or the US President on July 31, 2028?

Question

In an informal online poll conducted in July 2028, will people who identify as one-boxers in Newcomb’s Problem consider themselves more likely to trust the judgment and decisions of the Catholic pope or the U.S. president at that time?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Catholic Pope and US President are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Aug 4, 2026).

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