Curious: Why is intentional murder unconnected to OpenAI winning (9%) over intentional murder connected to OpenAI (3%)?

Is there evidence to explicitly suggest this? Or are traders just confident that OpenAI wouldn't have been involved in an actual murder even if this was one?

See my compilation of evidence here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DDtEnmGhNdJYpEfaG/joseph-miller-s-shortform?commentId=ihtKnKxxF2Z8ZKEGL

@JosephMiller0e84 i don't recommend reviewing crime scene footage, but the wad of hair, and blood smears from bathroom to hallway? I agree the rest of the evidence isn't meaningful, but I don't understand the update at a granularity of 2% from 98 to 96. Is there a track record to support this precision and confidence? Surely we can find out if he owned a gun, no?

I thought there would be more markets on this