Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Russia launches a full-scale military offensive against Ukraine after January 1, 2026. A "full-scale attack" is defined as a major coordinated military operation involving significant ground forces, air strikes, and artillery across multiple fronts—comparable in scope to Russia's February 2022 invasion or the sustained operations throughout 2023-2025.

The market resolves NO if Russia does not initiate such an operation by the end of 2026. Continued drone strikes, artillery bombardment, and localized tactical operations do not constitute a full-scale attack for resolution purposes.

Resolution will be determined by reports from credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) and official statements from Ukrainian and NATO sources.

Background

Russia currently occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine after gaining over four thousand square kilometers of territory in 2024. Russia launched over 200 drones against Ukraine on New Year's Eve 2026, targeting energy infrastructure. By year's end 2025, the outlines of a potential peace deal were clearer than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion, with U.S. and Ukrainian officials coalescing around a revised 20-point framework addressing ceasefire terms, security guarantees and disputed territory. Putin said he believes Moscow will win the war in his televised New Year's Eve address.

Considerations

The question's timing is ambiguous. Russia has maintained continuous military operations throughout the war without formal pauses. Analysts expect Putin to continue waging the current high-intensity, attritional war into 2026, as he continues to aim for outright victory. The distinction between escalation of existing operations versus a new "full-scale attack" may be difficult to establish objectively, as Russia could intensify current operations without formally declaring a new offensive.