This market shall resolve to the region in which it is confirmed by Eliezer Yudkowsky that Default City of dath ilan resides.
1,000
This is a plot I made sampling some possibilities based on some geographic constraints in this (non-canon) story.
Given some of the context some locations make more sense than others (the Mediterranean doesn't really work). In my mind, the locations that make the most sense are:
Default ~ real world San Francisco (with "Peninsula City" somewhere in Alaska)
Default in western Europe (with "Peninsula City" somewhere in Greenland or Nova Scotia)
Default in Japan (with "Peninsula City" on Kamchatka)
@BoltonBailey Japan doesn't work because it's already known to be the location of the last resort in canon.
@BoltonBailey Ah, I missed that "Peninsula City" was specifically referred to as that! That does narrow things down, versus my previous thought that it could be on an island.
Though, I suppose it could be on a small peninsula on an island?
@EvanTh Yeah, tricky, since it's probably easy to justify many coastal places as being on peninsulas, depending on how big or small it has to be to be a peninsula. But I think it's ok to rule out places in the US Midwest.
The story also says that the rescue is "a couple hundred miles from the nearest point of land", which is a restriction I had not captured before, here is a refined sampling mapped:
@BoltonBailey How about the Arabian Sea, with Peninsula City in Somalia and Default in India? Or the Bay of Bengal?
@EvanTh The story says that "[The water is] cold but not that close to freezing". Somewhat subjective but it seems like the waters in these latitudes are pretty warm year round, so I put a constraint that tropical waters aren't allowed. If you remove this restriction a bunch of other possibilities open up, like the ones you mentioned, and also the Caribbean and the Gulf of Guinea.
@Lorxus Asia. For a definition of Europe, you can use the map on Wikipedia.
@citrinitas "If counterfactually this was all a joke, I don't see why I'd have anagrammed Thailand or what I could have meant by that."
