Will Stage 13 of the 2023 Vuelta a Espana be won by a breakaway?
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resolved Sep 8
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NO

It is impossible to define what it means to be a breakaway for the purposes of this question so I am probably going to resolve with the market consensus, as long as it also agrees with my personal best judgement.

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predicted NO

I created these for the next two stages. I think they are MOST interesting if they get action BEFORE the stage starts.

predicted NO

Thanks for playing everyone! If this market type comes up on another stage in the future, do you have any suggestions for changes?

predicted NO

@Eliza I think your description is pretty reasonable, but I was hesitant to trade as the stage was ongoing because I was unsure how you would classify it.
Maybe you can give some examples of what you would consider a breakaway win?

predicted NO

@Primdal In a stage of this type it is almost impossible to write a concise set of 'rules'. There are many ways people attempt to do this (distance in front, size of groups, etc.) but I think they all kind of handcuff the market because reality is so unpredictable. One general principle that seems important to me is that a 'breakaway' is almost always \*allowed\* to ride in front of the favorites while an 'attack' is chased with full force from the moment they get away. Another relatively important principle is that a breakaway needs to be established for a considerable distance -- some say half the stage but I think a breakaway can certainly exist for less than half a stage. There are occasionally times where a chaotic stage gets a "second breakaway" with 60km left, for example.

If we look at the example of today, early on in the stage, various riders were allowed to ride past TJV at the front of the main peloton. If those riders ended up staying away, it would have obviously been a breakaway.

If 5 non-Jumbo riders had attacked on Spandelles and stayed away until the end of the stage, it would have maybe been a "breakaway" or maybe not, especially depending on the composition of the group and the reaction of Jumbo. If they were stealing the race GC, it probably wasn't a breakaway.

If 5 non-Jumbo riders attacked Kuss with 10km to go on Tourmalet it was almost certainly not a breakaway.

predicted NO

@Eliza I have done questions of this style before but this is the first time I tried to add "market consensus" to the resolution criteria so that was the most interesting part for me.

predicted NO

I vote that this was NOT a breakaway

@Primdal I agree, and the market seems to also agree

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