As announced on 11 March 2025:
Southwest® will continue to offer two free checked bags to Rapid Rewards® A-List Preferred Members and Customers traveling on Business Select® fares, and one free checked bag to A-List Members and other select Customers. Southwest will credit one checked bag for Rapid Rewards Credit Cardmembers. Customers who do not qualify for these free bag options will be charged for their first and second checked bags (weight and size limitations apply). Changes will apply to flights booked on or after May 28, 2025.2
This market intends to test this claim.
If, on 28 May 2025, someone who does not qualify for the listed programs is charged for their first checked bag (normal bag, not oversize or overweight or other special circumstances), this market resolves Yes.
If the above policy is modified before that date to not charge customers for the first bag, or if the policy is not actually implemented on 28 May 2025, this market resolves No. (The market will resolve No early if there is an updated press release reversing this plan before the target date.)
Please ask clarifying questions about edge cases and resolution plans in the comment section.
Note that this market only intends to check this single point from the press release.
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From what I can tell, they held to the policy:
I tried following a checkout flow but there was no specific prompt about paying a bag fee. It looks like the policy is implemented based on the text, but only travelers who both booked and traveled today would have experienced it yet.
I am going to provisionally resolve Yes but if there is news that the policy was never implemented and NO ONE ever paid a fee for their first bag, I will leave re-resolution on the table.
Changes in airline policies are indeed becoming more and more unpredictable. Especially in the context of growing competition and pressure on budgets. Southwest is still holding on to its image, but the trend towards additional monetization is felt by many. I recently read reviews of british airways, and this helped to better understand how passengers react to such changes. Such resources are useful for getting live feedback, which is not always visible in official press releases.