Will Remco Evenepoel start the 2024 Tour de France?
Jul 1

Starts the first stage, DNS on stage 1 will not count. DNF is fine.

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

I'm updating to a little bit less given the route of the Giro looks good on paper for Remco, and the Tour ends July 21 less than a week before the ITT (July 27) at the Olympics. I think Remco might want to fight for the gold medal there, and the following weekend at the road race. So Giro + Olympics + Vuelta might make more sense for him next year.

predicts NO

@egroj and it would make more sense for Quickstep to focus on Jakobsen and sprints for the Tour

predicts YES

@egroj Jakobsen will be at DSM next year. They would have to focus on Tim Merlier, but he isn't the best Grand Tour sprinter to say at least.

The Olympic iTT is nearly as flat as a pancake, not ideal for Remco as well.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@egroj Okay, fine, I'll bite:

1. Every single thing I have encountered for like a full year has been: Remco to do the Giro 2023, Tour 2024. I am shocked to find this below 90%.

2. The TDF route is still not even released, we will know more in about a week.


That said.....

Your totally wild theory is the exact kind of thing I would get into my head and cling to for six months because it actually does make way more sense than what is more likely to happen.

The TDF runs every year, and the 2024 edition should be incredibly competitive with several legitimate contenders that Remco has not really shown a consistent ability to beat. The Olympics only happens occasionally, and Remco really would have a good chance in the event. At least to earn a medal. He showed in the 2023 ITT WC that specific preparation can give him amazing results.

And the Giro route does look generally good for him with a lot of ITT. Plus, I rate it unlikely that either Roglic, Jonas, or Pogacar go to the Giro 2024. Geraint Thomas probably won't either.

I think the most important contributor to how this will end up going is whether Remco gets it in his head that he HAS to do the Tour, or if he has the ability to step back and assess the situation. Your plan is arguably better for HIM. But the Tour rules cycling and if he avoids going to it again, the Belgian media might be extremely hard on him.

predicts YES

@Eliza I think the Giro will be every year a better fit for Remco's abilities than the Tour. Not just this year, the Giro always has been with many iTTs in recent years.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@egroj DS and coach also think Giro+Vuelta makes more sense https://twitter.com/Domestique___/status/1717170130222735651