Will Manifold's Notion Meeting Notes page publicly show content from a Standup meeting after 5 April 2024 by 1 May 2024?
10
106
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resolved Apr 23
Resolved
YES

As of today, there are no new entries in the series of Standup meetings since 5 April 2024.

Will there be at least one new Standup meeting dated 6 April 2024 or later, as of 1 May 2024, start of day Manifold Time (Pacific)?

List of meetings:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/d47f36e878584cf2b6643e8376da6808?v=1f710db1394d40b8961ecd035a602939

This resolves Yes as soon as one new Standup meeting is found -- share a screenshot and/or link if you want it to resolve, just in case it goes away. Resolves No at closure if no new Standups were found.


Update: Apparently the meetings are generated as a template and only hidden when content starts rolling in.

To resolve YES, the meeting must be shared in here in screenshot form with entries from at least two participants, not just a blank template.

Example: If Ian reports he is sick and won't attend, but the rest of the meeting is not public, that won't resolve Yes yet.

Example: If James reports something and Ian reports something and we can read that before the meeting is hidden, that will resolve Yes.

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bought Ṁ2,140 YES

LEAKED! (Or intentionally shown since the pivot is now announced):

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/d47f36e878584cf2b6643e8376da6808?v=e5c3aea1f4a642fa8db688a1ff09d5a9&p=de82dcce7411478fa52048c229a2eda2&pm=c

This should now resolve Yes! Two team members have put entries in Standup and I took a screenshot and shared the link here.

I was originally skeptical and held No shares at 45% then 65%. Once I saw James promise he would return to public standup after the pivot was announced, it seemed like this would be a proxy of just "when will the pivot be announced" which was a lot less interesting for me.

Thanks for participating.

reposted

The pivot will be revealed before 1 May 2024. Either that, or they'll troll us!

@Eliza turns out both can be true

Found one!

It has no content yet, but nothing in the market description says it has to have content. It says the meeting notes page needs to publicly show a Standup meeting.

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/d47f36e878584cf2b6643e8376da6808?v=e5c3aea1f4a642fa8db688a1ff09d5a9

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/d47f36e878584cf2b6643e8376da6808?v=e5c3aea1f4a642fa8db688a1ff09d5a9&p=97679b4850734032a038672d886d7eaf&pm=c

bought Ṁ22 NO

@Eliza no, it's done this for many of the previous days. they hide it when the meeting actually ahppens.

bought Ṁ1,804 YES

@jacksonpolack Then this should have resolved days ago!

@Eliza Or do you think the criteria should say it needs to have content?

@jacksonpolack I mean, you could resolve it YES but I think doing so illustrates why having markets that resolve based on literal criteria and let themselves be goodhearted is just fundamentally pointless. The intent of this market is to resolve it yes when they start showing notes publicly.

@jacksonpolack That was definitely the intent! But no one has asked for clarification or mentioned it until now.

@Eliza I'm going to fix the criteria!

@jacksonpolack You can read the criteria either way, it's entirely up to you. Language interpretation depends on intent, context, and precedent. There is not, in any sense, a correct answer here, other than correct answers based on your goals lol

sold Ṁ345 YES

@jacksonpolack I updated the criteria!

reposted

Some speculation of potential reasons Standup is missing:

  • They have still been doing Standup but not sharing publicly right now because of the 'big pivot' and will go back to sharing it later

  • They quit using Notion as soon as Austin left

  • They quit doing Standup

  • They quit being open and transparent about everything

The first one is relatively straightforward, all the other ones would be pretty big changes for Manifold.