Resolves yes if he finishes the stage first on GC. If he doesn't finish or someone else is awarded the yellow jersey, resolves no.
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@egroj I originally put 5 on No at 50% just to do something but I was assuming this would quickly move up to the 75%-ish range or a little bit more and I could get some more No there. Now with it still sitting at 55% it feels like backing Jonas is the right move instead.....regardless, my thoughts:
I thought a lot of people would say "look, Pogacar did one of his best climbs of all time on Puy de Dome and only took 8 seconds on Jonas" and just assume Jonas will not be dropped and not lose much even if he is.
The twist here is the Grand Colombier does not have a steady gradient and if (especially) Tadej was to drop Jonas on one of the steep sections 5-8km from the finish, then he could possibly be able to gain much more than 8 seconds on the shallower gradients before the final steep bit to the finish.
After Stage 12, both riders and large parts of their teams should enter this stage at least somewhat fatigued. Overall, it feels like a stage Pogacar will not be defensive on and Jonas should be very defensive.