
Will Hoshoryu win more grand sumo tournaments as a Yokozuna than Kirishima does?
Will Hoshoryu win more grand sumo tournaments as a Yokozuna than Kirishima does?
9
70Ṁ2142045
92%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
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Only counting tournament ("basho") wins ("Yusho") as a Yokozuna, for both men, will Hoshoryu win more than Kirishima?
If they win tournaments as an Ozeki, none of those count.
This should roughly translate to "Will Hoshoryu both become a Yokozuna and have a better run at it than Kirishima?"
Resolves Yes as soon as Kirishima is retired and Hoshoryu has more wins as Yokozuna.
Resolves No as soon as Hoshoryu retires with equal or fewer wins as Yokozuna than Kirishima.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.