Will Egan Bernal win a professional race he competes against Jonas Vingegaard, in the 2024 UCI season?

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resolved Oct 22

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Egan and Jonas must both start and finish a race at the .1 level or above (including Worlds and Olympics). Bernal must win the race -- one-day, stage, or GC all count.

Resolves Yes if Bernal wins a race against Vingegaard.

Resolves No if that does not happen by the end of the 2024 UCI season.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ40 NO

Bought some No. They seem somewhat unlikely to meet up at the TDF at this point and it's not clear that they will even meet at all the rest of the year. Bernal looks like he's in really great shape right now so if they both plan to start the Vuelta I would probably buy Yes.

predictedYES

As of right now, their programs only overlap in stage races in Spain: O Gran Camiño, Itzulia and La Vuelta. Paradoxically, if Egan is in great shape I think the likelihood decreases because he will try to go for GC, not stages.

So for GC they both have to finish all stages?

@egroj That is correct. But for a stage within a stage race, if Jonas finished the stage Bernal won but DNS the next day, it still counts for Yes.

Basically, I want to see Bernal win something based on what he does, not based on something, Jonas does not do.

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