Resolves to the person awarded the leaders jersey at the podium event after the conclusion of the final stage. If there is no final stage podium, resolves to the first person publicly announced by the race organizer as the winner (website, social media, press release, etc.).
Any questions ask!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,462 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,844 | |
| 3 | Ṁ942 | |
| 4 | Ṁ125 | |
| 5 | Ṁ84 |
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@Eliza I would keep trading. I’ve had a fun week following this despite not knowing much about it. I’m curious why you think it wouldn’t be fair to reopen this? I fully understand making a new market to protect your liquidity though.
@StevetptC8 Anna crashed today and I'm guessing Demi will move to at least 50% (Most likely I'm thinking 60ish) as a result. If I reopen this one, the first trader will bet like 5k or more on Demi which is just stealing my liquidity for no reason since I already expect her to move up. If I do it myself then it will look like I'm cheating to gain Profit.
I'll make a new one I guess.
@traders new version, probably final one:
@Eliza What’s your theory of subsidizing? You often provide huge liquidity in your markets but close them early, preventing market movement and new traders from joining. In what sense is liquidity being stolen from you if traders bet in response to accidents? I’m trying to understand, not criticizing.
@MachiNi I feel like this specific market is good for a high subsidy for these reasons:
There exist other published betting odds on this subject but as far as I can tell they are not attracting a lot of action and may as well just be creative storytelling by the sportsbook.
I genuinely believe that Manifold might be capable of providing the best estimate in the entire world on this subject. There are only a few competitors and we had a knowledgeable trading base here. Offering these markets should also help Manifold if they are big enough to appear in general search results for random people.
I have a rough idea where I think it should be. I'm really interested in testing my intuition to see if my guess is about correct.
Adding a large subsidy increases the chances that someone else will come along and correct any mistakes. Having a lot of liquidity is the same as me going in and placing limit orders at every single percentage point in both directions. If I made the markets with 100 or 1000 mana, I'm pretty confident we would have like half the number of traders.
I'm willing to directly pay to have my own estimate corrected. If the traders are right, I learn. If they're wrong, I get paid out when the AMM resolves to an unexpected answer.
The only part that sucks is there is no reopening auction so I currently have something like 300,000 mana tied up in all these various markets. Once they all resolve I don't expect to be up or down a huge amount, but it is a pressure on my balance for sure.
@Eliza For example, I can see one book is offering GC odds right now of:
Vollering: 4/6 (60%)
AvdB: 6/4 (40%)
Niedermaier 7/1 (12.5%)
ELB: 33/1 (2.9%)
Holmgren 50/1 (2%)
Reusser 80/1 (1.2%)
NFB 200/1 (0.5%)
Niedermaier is way too high and Reusser/NFB are too low. The Vollering/AvdB split adding to 100% on their own feels like the book is taking a massive cut here. I doubt anyone is pushing too hard on anything.
@Eliza Thanks for taking the time to explain, that’s super interesting. I confess I still don’t fully understand the mechanics of liquidity on Manifold.
@Jack1 43-42 odds I'm surprised more people aren't taking Big League Risks here....this market is made for it!