Who will win 2.UWT races in the 2024 UCI Mens Elite road cycling season?
Nov 1
Tadej Pogacar
Remco Evenepoel
Wout Van Aert
Jonas Vingegaard

This market resolves 5% to each 2.UWT race GC winner, except in the case of the Tour de France (20%), Vuelta a Espana (10%), and Giro d'Italia (10%).

There are supposed to be 15 2.UWT races in the 2024 season. That does not divide 100% very nicely, so we give 5% each to the 12 non-GT ones (60%), and split the other 40% among the grand tours (20/10/10).

If one guy wins 3 races, he resolves to 15%. If someone wins 1 race, he resolves to 5%. If someone wins the TDF and one other 2.UWT race, that's 30%.

If a race is canceled, it resolves its percentages to the Canceled option.

In general, if you think someone is going to win 2 races, and not 3, bet them to 10%. If that means you bought No shares, that's just fine. If you bought Yes shares, that's also fine. Your No shares would resolve to 0.90 mana each and your Yes shares would resolve to 0.10 mana each. Bet the answers to the probability you think they will resolve to. Don't worry about whether you hold Yes or No.

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