Who will finish in the top 10 of the 2024 Tour de France?
Basic
47
38k
Jul 22
95%
Carlos Rodriguez
·
8mo
95%
Jonas Vingegaard
·
8mo
95%
Tadej Pogacar
·
8mo
95%
Mikel Landa
·
12d
93%
Remco Evenepoel
·
8mo
92%
Joao Almeida
·
12d
88%
Adam Yates
·
8mo
84%
Giulio Ciccone
·
12d
81%
Derek Gee
·
1mo
78%
Felix Gall
·
8mo
77%
Santiago Buitrago
·
4d
38%
Matteo Jorgenson
·
3mo
24%
Egan Bernal
·
5mo
3%
Simon Yates
·
8mo
3%
Jai Hindley
·
8mo
2%
Richard Carapaz
·
8mo
2%
Enric Mas
·
8mo
1%
Romain Bardet
·
13d

Resolves Yes to the 10 riders who finish in the top 10 of the final GC standings of the 2024 Tour de France. Everyone else resolves No if they DNS, DNF, or fail to finish top 10.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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@Lion DNS today so resolving NO

bought Ṁ954 Answer #9b43f024c5d3 NO

@Eliza STOP DOUBTING MY PREDICTIONS!!!

bought Ṁ334 Answer #abc2d66c16f2 NO

@Eliza can resolve NO, he DNF today.

bought Ṁ678 Answer #xetvgfluj4 NO

Resolving NO

very bad news for Roglic, BTW

May the best man win.

Tbh, I don't think it'll change anything. Roglic is out of the race for the win unless Pogi, Vingegaard and Remco crash.

@Eliza Could you resolve this one, please?

Richard Carapaz
bought Ṁ5 Richard Carapaz YES

Why is Carapaz so low? He has finished on the podium in 2021. Not going to say he's the most reliable candidate or will finish for sure, but under 10% for a Top10 finish seems alittle bit off to me.

I think EF and Carapaz himself would prefer to go for stages, so he will let himself drop in the classification around the second week so that the peloton allows him to go on the breakaways

I think he can do both. Wouldn't be the first one to get a Top10 with that strategy.

Derek Gee
bought Ṁ10 Derek Gee NO

I hope so much he goes for a stage win and not for a boring no-one-cares-Top-10

opened a Ṁ1,000 Answer #0642410a6ae1 NO at 53% order

@Eliza I put some No orders here.

Some thinking on Jonas (in conjunction w/ Claude):

In addition to the broken bones, he also suffered a pulmonary contusion and collapsed lung. The latter could put him out for longer. It's hard to know how bad it was, but the fact that he got oxygen on the course suggests fairly serious. He may still be on supplemental oxygen at the hospital now - I haven't seen statements either way - and may still require it after leaving if it's very severe.

Claude suggests 2-4 months before he can train at normal volume again, depending. Tadej had to be on rollers for weeks when he broke his wrist last year, but he could at least still train, just not put heavy weight on. Being unable to train at all seems possible and obviously much worse for Jonas.

I'm sure team will make statements soon but I think perhaps a median outcome is he's not able to train at all for at least a few weeks, and possibly longer.

bought Ṁ50 Jonas Vingegaard NO

@JCE yes, it seems very likely that he will miss the tour, if not the whole season. Maybe La Vuelta at this point? Even Remco might not end up going to the tour, and if he does, he won't be able to be on top form. Roglic looked in better shape out of the crash. Maybe we'll see the three of them at La Vuelta

bought Ṁ35 Answer #0642410a6ae1 YES

@egroj the eagle of durango spread his wings and prepares to take flight...

bought Ṁ10 Jonas Vingegaard YES

@JCE

The only market I know that has "Will Jonas start the TDF" is this one:

/Eliza/2024-tour-de-france-startlist-mega

Sadly, they never let us break individual options out into their own markets, even though I asked many, many times, so I can't link directly to just one option. Meaning I have no way to point people to this question other than "Search for it in this huge market" or creating a new, duplicate market asking the exact same question.

This one is also relevant:

/egroj/will-the-2024-tour-de-france-have-j

@Eliza That market doesn’t have Pogacar?

bought Ṁ10 Answer #ed3e51169bcc YES

The market is currently sitting at 1143% when it should only resolve to 1000%. I'm buying some No across several options.

reposted

Egan looked good at a recent stage race!

Adam Yates

Adam has not been seen in over a month.

Jonas Vingegaard

Jonas just took a 10% cut today due to a crash in a race.

I'm just mentioning that Roglic crashed out of the last two Tours he has taken part. 78% is too high. 😂

@Lion We can't do a bet-reply to MC options yet, but consider this me buying more Roglic Yes.

@Eliza feel free, I put a limit order at 75% in. But I won't cry if Roglic crashes himself out. (Of course it will be Fred Wright's and Sonny Colbrelli's fault)

@Eliza I AM NOT CRYING!!!!!