Some thinking on Jonas (in conjunction w/ Claude):

In addition to the broken bones, he also suffered a pulmonary contusion and collapsed lung. The latter could put him out for longer. It's hard to know how bad it was, but the fact that he got oxygen on the course suggests fairly serious. He may still be on supplemental oxygen at the hospital now - I haven't seen statements either way - and may still require it after leaving if it's very severe.

Claude suggests 2-4 months before he can train at normal volume again, depending. Tadej had to be on rollers for weeks when he broke his wrist last year, but he could at least still train, just not put heavy weight on. Being unable to train at all seems possible and obviously much worse for Jonas.

I'm sure team will make statements soon but I think perhaps a median outcome is he's not able to train at all for at least a few weeks, and possibly longer.

@JCE yes, it seems very likely that he will miss the tour, if not the whole season. Maybe La Vuelta at this point? Even Remco might not end up going to the tour, and if he does, he won't be able to be on top form. Roglic looked in better shape out of the crash. Maybe we'll see the three of them at La Vuelta

@egroj the eagle of durango spread his wings and prepares to take flight...

@JCE

The only market I know that has "Will Jonas start the TDF" is this one:

/Eliza/2024-tour-de-france-startlist-mega

Sadly, they never let us break individual options out into their own markets, even though I asked many, many times, so I can't link directly to just one option. Meaning I have no way to point people to this question other than "Search for it in this huge market" or creating a new, duplicate market asking the exact same question.

This one is also relevant:

/egroj/will-the-2024-tour-de-france-have-j

@Eliza That market doesn’t have Pogacar?

@NicoDelon Maybe worth an update? https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/who-of-pogacar-or-vingegaard-will-h?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

The market is currently sitting at 1143% when it should only resolve to 1000%. I'm buying some No across several options.

Egan looked good at a recent stage race!

Adam has not been seen in over a month.

Jonas just took a 10% cut today due to a crash in a race.

I'm just mentioning that Roglic crashed out of the last two Tours he has taken part. 78% is too high. 😂

@Lion We can't do a bet-reply to MC options yet, but consider this me buying more Roglic Yes.

@Eliza feel free, I put a limit order at 75% in. But I won't cry if Roglic crashes himself out. (Of course it will be Fred Wright's and Sonny Colbrelli's fault)

I really, really hope we get a new linked multiple choice type "resolves to exactly 10 answers" before the TDF, if that happens we can have a much better version of this. For now, the unlinked version is the best we can do.