Who will finish in the top 10 of the 2024 Tour de France?
Jul 22
Tadej Pogacar
Primoz Roglic
Adam Yates
Carlos Rodriguez
Remco Evenepoel
Sepp Kuss
Enric Mas
Egan Bernal
David Gaudu
Felix Gall
Simon Yates
Richard Carapaz
Juan Ayuso
Matteo Jorgenson
Pello Bilbao
Ben O'Connor
Jay Hindley
Thomas Pidcock
Jonas Vingegaard
Geraint Thomas

Resolves Yes to the 10 riders who finish in the top 10 of the final GC standings of the 2024 Tour de France. Everyone else resolves No if they DNS, DNF, or fail to finish top 10.

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Some thinking on Jonas (in conjunction w/ Claude):

In addition to the broken bones, he also suffered a pulmonary contusion and collapsed lung. The latter could put him out for longer. It's hard to know how bad it was, but the fact that he got oxygen on the course suggests fairly serious. He may still be on supplemental oxygen at the hospital now - I haven't seen statements either way - and may still require it after leaving if it's very severe.

Claude suggests 2-4 months before he can train at normal volume again, depending. Tadej had to be on rollers for weeks when he broke his wrist last year, but he could at least still train, just not put heavy weight on. Being unable to train at all seems possible and obviously much worse for Jonas.

I'm sure team will make statements soon but I think perhaps a median outcome is he's not able to train at all for at least a few weeks, and possibly longer.

bought Ṁ50 Jonas Vingegaard NO

@JCE yes, it seems very likely that he will miss the tour, if not the whole season. Maybe La Vuelta at this point? Even Remco might not end up going to the tour, and if he does, he won't be able to be on top form. Roglic looked in better shape out of the crash. Maybe we'll see the three of them at La Vuelta

bought Ṁ35 Sepp Kuss YES

@egroj the eagle of durango spread his wings and prepares to take flight...

bought Ṁ10 Jonas Vingegaard YES


The only market I know that has "Will Jonas start the TDF" is this one:


Sadly, they never let us break individual options out into their own markets, even though I asked many, many times, so I can't link directly to just one option. Meaning I have no way to point people to this question other than "Search for it in this huge market" or creating a new, duplicate market asking the exact same question.

This one is also relevant:


@Eliza That market doesn’t have Pogacar?

bought Ṁ10 Thomas Pidcock YES

The market is currently sitting at 1143% when it should only resolve to 1000%. I'm buying some No across several options.


Egan looked good at a recent stage race!

Adam Yates

Adam has not been seen in over a month.

Jonas Vingegaard

Jonas just took a 10% cut today due to a crash in a race.

bought Ṁ3 of Primoz Roglic NO

I'm just mentioning that Roglic crashed out of the last two Tours he has taken part. 78% is too high. 😂

bought Ṁ5 of Sepp Kuss YES

@Lion We can't do a bet-reply to MC options yet, but consider this me buying more Roglic Yes.

bought Ṁ0 of Primoz Roglic NO

@Eliza feel free, I put a limit order at 75% in. But I won't cry if Roglic crashes himself out. (Of course it will be Fred Wright's and Sonny Colbrelli's fault)

I really, really hope we get a new linked multiple choice type "resolves to exactly 10 answers" before the TDF, if that happens we can have a much better version of this. For now, the unlinked version is the best we can do.