This is an unlinked mulitple choice market. Each option is a market upon itself.
Every option is listed as a name and their 2023 UCI point tally. If they score more UCI points in 2024 than 2023, that answer will resolve Yes. If they score fewer UCI points in 2024 than 2023, it will resolve No. No answers will resolve N/A. Answers can resolve Yes as soon as the rider eclipses their 2023 point total, but answers will not resolve No until the end of the season.
If they exactly tie their 2023 points, it will resolve to 50%.
I expect that the total number of UCI points available in 2024 races will generally be similar to the 2023 points. If there are changes in the point totals that will cause drastic differences in this market, we could apply a scaling factor, but I do not think this is likely.
I have set this to the mode where only I can add answers, so they will stay sorted by the 2023 rankings order. I added the top 40 to start; trying to skip riders who are retiring. If you have any other suggestions of riders to add, comment below! I think this could be useful for a lot of mid-level riders who either had their best season in 2023 or had a down season in 2023. This market is a little bit like "fantasy cycling" in nature.
For your information, the UCI season for 2023 ended at the conclusion of the last WorldTour race of 2023. The 2024 season is already starting now and will end at the conclusion of the last WorldTour race of 2024. The exact date could change but is likely to end on 20 October 2024 with the conclusion of the Tour of Guangxi. If the UCI changes the end date of the 2024 season, we will use the date they choose.
Womens edition:
/Eliza/which-uci-womens-road-cyclists-will-f86c22e50e26
1,000
3.00@Eliza Will you do early resolutions on this market? Pogi's hit 7900 this year already by my count, but I know riders can still be penalized UCI points so it'd technically be possible for this to still resolve No
At the time this market was created, Manifold still gave users loans on long term positions, so I did not focus as much on setting it up in a way that directly favors early resolution. On more recent markets I usually design them so they can resolve early if the early resolution fully matches the spirit of the question.
In this case, I actually would be totally happy with finding out someone beat last year's total by the market moving to 99%, so I'm okay with resolving Yes early, as soon as the rider outscores last year's points. Even though they may lose points in the future, the description does say "If they score more UCI points in 2024 than 2023, that answer will resolve Yes.". So we can resolve promptly after that happens.
I don't plan on resolving No early for any answer, even if it is impossible for the rider to reach their 2023 point total, mainly because it is really annoying to come back to a market repeatedly to resolve a single answer. (Ask me how I know.)
Regarding a data source for early resolution: The UCI official rankings site will only display the rolling ranking, and manually removing 2023 results from the total will be annoying. I had a look at two popular third-party results websites and found some interesting things....I couldn't find a site that displayed an easy to parse "points earned so far this season" total.
On FirstCycling the only calculated totals I could find were for the rolling ranking, and there was no display correctly showing all the UCI points a rider has earned in a specific season (e.g. the page for Pogacar leaves out UCI points earned for wearing a leaders jersey or earned in a Mountains Classification).
On ProCyclingStats, I did find what appears to be a reliable full calendar year tally on the individual rider pages, but it omits points earned at the very start of the 2024 season, which would have been like November and December 2023. Most of the riders in this market did not participate in any races in that period, so we're probably okay there.
By the PCS tally, Pogacar is on 9105 points for calendar year 2024 which is quite a lot higher than his 2023 tally, so I'll resolve him Yes now. And also Matteo Jorgenson, Juan Ayuso, and Carlos Rodriguez.
@Primdal I have an entire list of offseason market ideas but they cost so much mana I need to do more work to make them.
The goal of this market is twofold:
1. Some kind of out-of-season fantasy cycling game to have fun and speculate
2. Mid-season update potential to buy/sell as results start to come in
I have spent every mana in my balance to create both this and the womens edition but if you have more names let me know. I will probably have more mana soon.