Suggest actions traders can take to shore up their portfolio before the 'mana supply' changes go into effect
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Recently an entire collection of changes to how mana is handed out was announced:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10

Your job is to translate the new announcement into a simple set of actionable tasks that any user could do to shore up their portfolio either before or immediately after the changes go into effect.

If it seems to make sense, people can heart it for the auto-bounty thing.

Should I be selling my long positions now? Under what circumstances? Any rules of thumb? Should I try to get a lot of loans before the changes go into effect or minimize them? Should I put my entire balance on "Resolves in 2100" right now? Answer all these questions and more and get paid! Hopefully other users will contribute to the bounty if they feel it was valuable advice.

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Since it didn't generate much action and we seem to have run out of time, I'm closing this one and moving all the remaining bounty over to:

/Eliza/come-up-with-a-scheme-that-will-res

reposted

transaction fees are coming today james said, make your big bets now!

reposted

The auto bounty was running low so I added extra

Congrats to the two of you for getting all the bounty lol. I'm still 100% convinced there is more users should do before the fee implementation starts but maybe several hundred mana is not enough to get people to write it out.

None of these seem to specifically address any calculations around the new trading fees that will be in effect. Should users sell positions now to avoid the transaction fees later? What other parts have not been addressed yet?

+Ṁ367

Decide the maximum amount of time you’d like to wait for your mana to be unlocked, I choose a year. Go to your limit order tab and cancel anything that’s:

A) not time limited, or open past the period you choose.

B) on a market that doesn’t resolve until beyond that period.

This way a limit order you have open and forgotten about won’t suck up your mana and lock it away where you can’t get a loan on it.

+Ṁ338

Very simple/obvious, but perhaps practically useful:

  • Go to trades tab

  • Sort in reverse by close date

  • Look for any bets you’ve placed with (1) close date many months away, and (2) “time “ (since you placed the bet) <1 month.

This sorting is imperfect, but the loan changes have the greatest impact on recently placed bets (which won’t have been fully loaned back) that resolve soon. You should strongly consider if these bets are ones you actually want to be stuck with (especially since selling will incur a fee).

For a quick rule of thumb, bets placed today should loan back a bit under ~half their value before the loans stop. So if there are markets where you’d like SOME loans back, it’s best to place those bets today to max out the number of daily loans to can take before they’re gone.