[V2] If a user was considering purchasing mana, should they do it today or wait until after the 'big pivot' is enacted?
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resolved Apr 29
Today (with new mana prices)
After the pivot
I doubt it will make any difference either way
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Manifold announced new mana prices here:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/New-mana-purchase-price-schedule-f6910630291f4f3f8f3cccc5e61ee5b9

If you happen to be considering purchasing mana right now, would you think it is better to buy mana right now, or wait until after the 'pivot' is enacted sometime within the next few weeks/months (presumably.....)

Basically -- is it a good time to buy mana or a bad time?

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DEFINITELY WAIT!!!!!

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393

Huge announcements related to the cost of mana. DO NOT BUY YESTERDAY. It's closed anyway.

@Eliza Only 4 poll participants picked "Wait until after", while 8 said to either buy now or that it would not make a difference.

Today - 3

After - 4

No difference - 5

This market was supposed to be a companion of sorts with this other one:

/Eliza/will-more-user-accounts-purchase-ma

So right now the combination of the two tells me "we think we will have to buy more mana in the future, but we won't do it until we are forced"

If the pivot substantially changes the mana value proposition then buying it now is buying a mystery box. It might be worth more, there same, or less (subjectively, I’m assuming the dollar pegging with charity donations won’t change). Is it worth buying a mystery box to get a little more margin on short term markets? I don’t think so.

after this change, I've now reversed my position. there are still benefits in buying now (eke out some loan leverage, be in a good position for the pivot, etc.), but it's more likely imo that there will be some other more effective or interesting way of spending cash post-pivot. but while I think they may get more out of it later, if a user wanted to purchase mana it's no less worthwhile to do now. there are real advantages to not waiting even if I would wait

@Stralor Notably, I wouldn't be surprised if there are limited time purchase bundles after the pivot, say mana + spice, or some such. it's not guaranteed, but mana discounts have happened before and the Manifold team is definitely hoping to stir up excitement with whatever is coming

reposted

Will Manifold raise prices again? Lower them? Or will there be something else you can use your money to buy on the site that would mean you won't want to buy mana?

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