If a market says it resolves on the subjective opinion of an inactive creator, when should moderators step in?
24
Mar 6
1 day after attempted contact with no response
1 week after attempted contact with no response
1 month after attempted contact with no response
longer than 1 month after attempted contact with no response
only if the user's account is deleted or banned
never ever

Imagine you bet on a market that says "resolves on my subjective opinion" and then when it is time to resolve, it turns out the creator has GHOSTED the site and hasn't been seen in 3 months. How would you feel???


This isn't really the kind of thing I can ask with fully mutually exclusive answers on the Manifold poll system, so just vote based on the vibes you feel and then let it rip in the comment section.

The intent of this market is to gather opinions and a general outline of the community's feeling, perhaps it could help shape the community/mod guidelines going forward.

Have fun, no fighting.

My apologies, I forgot to add a 'see results' option -- you're now in opinion jail and have to just pick one.


Note that in the current mod guidelines, if the moderators have 'given up' on waiting for the creator, then they are supposed to seek the opinion of 3 moderators and resolve Yes or No only if they are unanimous. In all other cases, the market would resolve N/A.

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Note that in the current mod guidelines, if the moderators have 'given up' on waiting for the creator, then they are supposed to seek the opinion of 3 moderators and resolve Yes or No only if they are unanimous. In all other cases, the market would resolve N/A.

For anyone voting "after X amount of time", do you think moderators should:

  • Always N/A

or

  • Try to resolve one way or the other and N/A if no consensus

We need the "@creator resolve plz" tag to work like this:

  • 0 seconds: Notification

  • 60 seconds: Push notification with vibration

  • 120 secs: hard push notification with amber alert sound and vibration

  • 180 secs: push notification and electric shock through electrode fastened to the skin

  • 240 secs: Swat Team

Usually when I see this statement in descriptions it’s mostly a generic CYA to acknowledge the inherent interpretation required in some question types, but where public consensus is pretty clear by resolution time. If there was a specific question where I imagine users are banking on particular characteristics of the creator I might feel differently.

@Eliza does “step-in” only mean to resolve Yes or No, or does it possibly include N/A’ing the market?

@snazzlePop See my comment immediately below this for more details.

Note that in the current mod guidelines, if the moderators have 'given up' on waiting for the creator, then they are supposed to seek the opinion of 3 moderators and resolve Yes or No only if they are unanimous. In all other cases, the market would resolve N/A.

For anyone voting "after X amount of time", do you think moderators should:

  • Always N/A

or

  • Try to resolve one way or the other and N/A if no consensus

@Eliza N/A by default in such markets (I.e. which would resolve to something like “in my subjective opinion”)

@Eliza Randomly select a moderator who resolves subjectively. NA-ing over play money is highly unsatisfying, and I'd go as far as say disrespecting the time and effort people put into the platform

@GazDownright What if the randomly selected moderator is completely uninformed on the topic?

What if the randomly selected moderator also fails to respond for a week?

@Eliza A) they secretly confer with the current leader of chatbot arena

B) straight to jail

I voted "only if the user's account is deleted or banned", but I'd instead say "only if the user's account is deleted or banned or if they state that they are not going to resolve the market or if they state that they have quit Manifold". In any of these cases though, I'd suggest that the market should resolve N/A.

@Gabrielle Out of curiosity, if a banned or deleted user contacted the site and said "I am banned or deleted but I think this should resolve X", what weight would you give their opinion?

(I am fairly confident we have used the opinion of a banned/deleted creator to answer their own question in the past.)

@Eliza If I think they're sincerely answering the question and not trolling, I'd prefer to resolve as that person said.

@Gabrielle

In any of these cases though, I'd suggest that the market should resolve N/A.

I normally dislike N/A but I feel like traders who traded on "resolves on my subjective opinion" should not be shortchanged with "resolves on the subjective opinion of 3 moderators who may or may not understand the subject matter". I seem to find myself mostly in agreement with you on this one.

My first instinct is something along the lines of "if the market says it resolves on their subjective opinion, then everyone needs to live with that and deal with the consequences of ghosting". But maybe people can convince me otherwise.

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