Looks like this is going to be resolving 1.

Guess who owns No shares in zero?

One event remains!

Looks like it's either 1 or 2! Should be able to resolve Sunday.

Not a believer in Demi 1st and Wiebes winning the field sprint for 2nd? (And MVDP medaling...)

Olympic Cycling Dashboard

Sounds like Ellen is confirmed going to the Games!

@Iamczecksy In it for the lolz I see! 😂

The Netherlands team in the Tokyo 2020 Women's Road Race famously failed to catch the breakaway, and Annemiek van Vleuten celebrated her 2nd place thinking she had just won. Moments later she realized the error and was obviously very sad. Anna Kiesenhofer had finished over a minute earlier.

The Keisenhofer upset was one of the most fun stories out of the last Olympics. I hear she's trying to qualify for the Time Trial this year?

Luckily for you, there's already a market about this from @Lion :

/Lion/will-anna-kiesenhofer-beat-christin

She is qualified. She goes for the ITT like in Tokyo. I'd assume a realistic goal is a Top10. No one expects anything from her in the road race, maybe some marketing for Roland (former Israel PremierTech Roland).

Alright, here's how I see some of the events:

Men's Time Trial: No chance. Zero.

Women's Time Trial: Ellen van Dijk would have been a very obvious medal candidate however she suffered a bad injury only a few weeks before the event. My understanding is she's doing everything she can to prepare and hopefully be in shape. I'm not sure if it is too late to sub her out for Riejanne Markus, who could possibly medal anyway. Demi Vollering probably cannot medal on such a flat course in a WWT race, but the field is very thin here, so anything could happen. I'm at like 50% to medal here pending Ellen's status update. If she's good to go she would be close to 100%.

Men's Road Race: Mathieu van der Poel and Dylan van Baarle are both capable of winning on a course like this depending on how the racing plays out. Dylan's ability to go solo on a long race is good for the chaotic nature of an Olypmics course with no race radios, and Mathieu has good instincts and knows how to win a race and be the best on the day. I don't think they will earn two medals, but getting one seems at least 40% likely. MVDP is getting odds of +300 to win right now.

Women's Road Race: Basically a dream team. They have past Olympic champion Marianne Vos, who is fully capable of winning on this course, and Tour de France Femmes champion Demi Vollering who is also capable of winning on this course, and Lorena Wiebes who would be like 90% to win if the race comes down to a big bunch sprint. The team must be over 90% to win at least one medal, and it's very realistic that they could win multiple medals with e.g. a breakaway winner and a Wiebes sprint for 2nd or 3rd.

I've set the odds to what I think is a reasonable starting point: 5% for no medals, 40% for 1 medal, 30% for 2 medals, and 15% for 3. The most likely case for 3 medals is probably Men's Road Race and two in the Women's Road race, and I can definitely hear some arguments that this is more than 15% likely.