The Netherlands is known for being exceptional at road cycling on the world level. Their men and women riders have had numerous World Champions in recent years, including:
Men's Road Race: 2023
Women's Road Race: 2017-2020, 2022
Men's Individual Time Trial: 2017
Women's Individual Time Trial: 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022
The Netherlands also has a solid record of medals at the Olympics, with 3 medals at the 2016 games and 4 medals in the 2020 edition.
Road Cycling has 4 events in the Paris 2024 Olympics:
27 July - Women's Individual Time Trial
27 July - Men's Individual Time Trial
3 August - Men's Road Race
4 August - Women's Road Race
This question resolves to the number of medals won by the Netherlands, as reflected on the Paris 2024 official website results at the time of the podium ceremony for the Women's road race. Changes to the medal tally after this point will not result in re-resolution.
If any event is canceled or otherwise awards no medals, resolves at the end of the day on 4 August according to whatever results are official.
I am tentatively setting trading to close the morning of the Men's Road Race mainly because the site currently does not let me withdraw liquidity before a known event time, but will consider allowing trading through the conclusion of the events at my own discretion.
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Alright, here's how I see some of the events:
Men's Time Trial: No chance. Zero.
Women's Time Trial: Ellen van Dijk would have been a very obvious medal candidate however she suffered a bad injury only a few weeks before the event. My understanding is she's doing everything she can to prepare and hopefully be in shape. I'm not sure if it is too late to sub her out for Riejanne Markus, who could possibly medal anyway. Demi Vollering probably cannot medal on such a flat course in a WWT race, but the field is very thin here, so anything could happen. I'm at like 50% to medal here pending Ellen's status update. If she's good to go she would be close to 100%.
Men's Road Race: Mathieu van der Poel and Dylan van Baarle are both capable of winning on a course like this depending on how the racing plays out. Dylan's ability to go solo on a long race is good for the chaotic nature of an Olypmics course with no race radios, and Mathieu has good instincts and knows how to win a race and be the best on the day. I don't think they will earn two medals, but getting one seems at least 40% likely. MVDP is getting odds of +300 to win right now.
Women's Road Race: Basically a dream team. They have past Olympic champion Marianne Vos, who is fully capable of winning on this course, and Tour de France Femmes champion Demi Vollering who is also capable of winning on this course, and Lorena Wiebes who would be like 90% to win if the race comes down to a big bunch sprint. The team must be over 90% to win at least one medal, and it's very realistic that they could win multiple medals with e.g. a breakaway winner and a Wiebes sprint for 2nd or 3rd.
I've set the odds to what I think is a reasonable starting point: 5% for no medals, 40% for 1 medal, 30% for 2 medals, and 15% for 3. The most likely case for 3 medals is probably Men's Road Race and two in the Women's Road race, and I can definitely hear some arguments that this is more than 15% likely.