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MANIFOLD
What's the luckiest single digit integer?
7
Ṁ500Ṁ259
resolved Jul 23
100%87%
7
9%Other
0.4%
1
0.4%
2
0.5%
3
0.5%
4
0.5%
5
0.5%
6
0.5%
8
0.5%
9
Pretty self-explanatory; I'll resolve to the single digit integer with the highest ranking. By "integer" I mean the following options only: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. May your lucky number with you!
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Just to confirm, you'll resolve to the number that has the highest percentage at close time?
@BionicD0LPH1N That's correct! Means it's ripe for some silly gaming of the system, but I rather hope we see more good faith guesses.
@EliGaultney What does it mean to make a "good faith guess" at the luckiest number when the luck of a number is explicitly defined in how much it's bet on in this market? Does this question ask what people think the luck attribute *should* be to each digit, or does it ask what really *is* the luck attribute to these digits (does it assume there's such a thing?)? I'm also curious whether people betting in this market believe that numbers can be more or less lucky and are betting accordingly, or whether they're simply betting on what they think other people will bet on because it's a good Schelling point, Keynesian-beauty-contest-style. In the latter case, I don't think it's bad at all to do what you call "some silly gaming of the system". Keynesian beauty contests are meant to be gamed!
@BionicD0LPH1N It is 100% a Keynesian beauty contest haha. I'm just being wistful imagining it could be something else. This one is just for fun, after all :)
@EliGaultney Oh ok :) fair enough, I won't game it

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