Resolution criteria

• Resolution Outcome: This market resolves to YES if Halloween ranks among the top ten holidays by total consumer spending in the United States for the calendar year 2067. It resolves to NO if Halloween ranks eleventh or lower.

• Source of Truth: Annual consumer spending estimates published by the National Retail Federation (NRF). If the NRF is defunct or ceases reporting holiday spending before 2067, resolution will rely on equivalent data from a recognized successor retail trade group, the U.S. Census Bureau, or consensus reporting from major market intelligence firms.

• Holiday Scope: The comparison evaluates annual cultural and calendar holidays (e.g., Winter Holidays/Christmas, Mother's Day, Valentine's Day, Easter, Father's Day, Halloween, Independence Day). Non-holiday seasonal shopping events (such as "Back to School" and "Back to College") and standalone commercial sale periods (such as Amazon Prime Day or Cyber Week) are excluded.

• Ties & Fallbacks: If Halloween ties for 10th place, the market resolves to YES. If full-year 2067 spending data is delayed, resolution will wait until relevant reports are released, up to December 31, 2068.

Background

According to data compiled by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics, annual U.S. consumer holiday spending has historically been led by:

1. Winter Holidays (Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa)

2. Mother's Day

3. Valentine's Day

4. Easter

5. Father's Day

6. Halloween

While total U.S. consumer spending on Halloween reached an estimated $13.5 billion in 2026, it traditionally places just outside the top five, trailing Father's Day ($22–$28 billion), Easter ($22–$24 billion), and Valentine's Day (~$24–$26 billion). General seasonal categories like Back-to-School and Back-to-College generate larger aggregate outlays but are categorized as educational/seasonal retail periods rather than holidays.

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