Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, VK (formerly Mail.ru group) officially confirms or reputable media outlets report that user data (e.g., files, emails, photos, videos) stored on VK services was irreversibly lost, permanently deleted, or unrecoverably corrupted as a result of hardware destruction, facility damage, cyberattacks, or technical failure.

This market resolves NO if disruptions consist only of temporary unavailability, API/gateway timeouts, or service restrictions where data is retained or successfully restored from backups by the cutoff date.

Resolution will be verified using official VK statements, and credible reports identifying specific named users (individuals or organizations) who irreversibly lost data.

Background

VK (formerly Mail.ru Group) operates Russia's largest social network, VKontakte, alongside major email, cloud storage, video hosting, and messaging services.

Concerns surrounding server infrastructure, hardware maintenance under international sanctions, and potential physical damage to domestic data center facilities (as recently seen in drone strikes affecting other major Russian cloud infrastructure providers like Yandex) have elevated discussions regarding data redundancy and backup resilience for Russian tech giants through 2026.

Due to a degree of subjectivity in resolution criteria, I will not trade in this market.

See also:

https://manifold.markets/Egor/will-yandex-irreversibly-lose-some