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MANIFOLD
How many total days will the 2022 UC academic workers' strike last?
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resolved Jan 4
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The strike began on November 14, 2022. If most of the strikers go back to working on a specific day, then it will resolve to the number of days between then and November 14, 2022. Otherwise, (for example if there's a significant amount of confusion/disagreement about when the strike ends) resolves to N/A. If the strike lasts longer than 365 days, resolves to 365.

Some background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_University_of_California_academic_workers%27_strike

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market already seems tightly calibrated to me, I could buy no but it would be a small change to a nearly-calibrated market and it doesn't seem to value moving the number down much at all. shrug

predictedHIGHER

@L Don't you make more expected value when the number changes less after your prediction? Anyway, I'm sure there will be news stories to change this timeframe soon, you could always check back later and be the first to take advantage of that!

predictedHIGHER

For reference, January 1, 2023 would be 48 days.

How many total days will the 2022 UC academic workers' strike last?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition