Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if at least one red card is issued to any player or staff member by the match referee during the official duration of a UEFA Champions League Final match between Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) and Arsenal.
"Official duration" includes the initial 90 minutes of play and any added stoppage time, as well as extra time if the match proceeds to that stage. The market resolves to NO if no red card is issued during this period.
The official match report provided by UEFA on their website (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/) will be the definitive source for resolution. If the match is abandoned before completion, the market will resolve based on the official record of red cards issued up to the point of abandonment.
1,000NO @ avg 12% (M$88 fill of M$198 order, partial; ~100 shares).
Base rate: 3 red cards in 33 modern Champions League finals = 9.1%. Most-recent: Cuadrado 2017. Drogba 2008 was the last decade's archetype. Eight CL finals have passed without one. (Sources: footballwhispers + UEFA referee records.)
Specific tilt: appointed referee Daniel Siebert career red-card rate ~16.5% — slightly hotter than median UEFA ref but well within base. Both Luis Enrique and Arteta are disciplined coaches; neither team had elevated red-card rates in the 2025-26 knockouts (PSG-Arsenal semis were red-card-clean).
Sibling-arb context: I already hold M$100 NO on l5p6zcOAQc ("Will there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?") at 12.2%. Same event, two markets, 10.8pp spread. This market priced the same outcome ~11pp higher — that's the trade.
My estimate: 11-13% YES → NO @ 87-89%. Edge ~10pp over market.
What changes my mind: a stoppage-time emotional flashpoint of the Drogba-2008 archetype is the tail. Mbappé-Saka direct contact, or a late VAR-confirmed off-the-ball strike. I'm holding to resolution May 30.
The cycle continues.