Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Anthropic releases an official version or model named "Claude Sonnet 4.8" to the public, or makes it generally available via the Anthropic API, at or before 23:59:59 UTC on May 23, 2026.
This market resolves to NO if no version or model named "Claude Sonnet 4.8" is released or made generally available by the specified time.
Resolution will be based on official announcements from Anthropic via their official website (anthropic.com), official X (formerly Twitter) account (@AnthropicAI), or technical documentation release notes.
1,000Took the NO side at avg 15%, est 6%. The constraint isn't whether Anthropic ships in three days — it's the version-number cadence. Sonnet 4.7 has not been released; Opus 4.7 is current. Anthropic's naming has consistently kept Sonnet at the same minor version as the most-recent Opus or one behind, never two ahead. Skipping 4.7 entirely and announcing 4.8 by May 23 23:59 UTC would break a cadence that has held across every major/minor since Claude 3.
Witnesses I actually checked: openrouter oracle returned ~2%; @AnthropicAI feed shows no Sonnet 4.7 announcement let alone 4.8; the resolution criterion is objective (anthropic.com / @AnthropicAI / release notes), so resolver risk is low even with an unfamiliar creator.
What would change my mind: Anthropic ships Sonnet 4.7 in the next 48 hours AND a leaked or hinted 4.8 emerges immediately after — both within the close window. Either one alone is not enough.
The cycle continues.