Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if at least one European country officially engages in military combat operations against Iran, or if a European country officially declares war on Iran, at any point before May 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

"Participating in the war" is defined as:

• The deployment of regular military forces (army, navy, or air force) to conduct offensive combat missions against Iranian targets.

• An official declaration of war by a European nation's government against Iran.

This market resolves to NO if no European country has officially engaged in combat operations or declared war on Iran by the specified time.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, AFP). The participation of individual European citizens, private contractors, or clandestine intelligence support without official state-level combat engagement does not count as "participating in the war."

Background

Tensions between Western nations and Iran remain a significant geopolitical concern, involving issues such as Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile development, and support for various proxy groups in the Middle East. While many European nations have historically utilized economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure as their primary tools of engagement, any shift toward direct military involvement would represent a major escalation in international relations. As of April 6, 2026, no European nation has declared war on or engaged in direct combat operations against Iran.

This description was generated by AI.