Will it be confirmed that Musk has used sex-selective IVF by the end of 2026?
7
100Ṁ74
2026
31%
chance

Background

Elon Musk's estranged transgender daughter, Vivian Jenna Wilson, has publicly alleged that her father used sex-selective in vitro fertilization (IVF) to conceive children, including herself, with the intention of having male heirs. These allegations were made in March 2024 through social media posts. As of now, Elon Musk has not publicly responded to these claims, and there is no confirmed investigation into the matter.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if, by December 31, 2026:

  • Elon Musk publicly confirms he has used sex-selective IVF, OR

  • Court documents, medical records, or other credible evidence emerges that conclusively proves Musk used sex-selective IVF, OR

  • A reputable investigative report with multiple sources and evidence confirms the practice beyond reasonable doubt.

The market will resolve as NO if:

  • By December 31, 2026, none of the above conditions are met

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