This is a multiple-choice range market.

• The market resolves using the informal (parallel) USD–CUP exchange rate.

• Resolution source: El Toque informal USD–CUP rate hosted on the website
  https://en.cibercuba.com/tags/cambio-moneda

• Resolution time: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM Havana time.

• The range that contains the exchange rate observed on December 31 2026 (rounded to the nearest whole CUP) resolves YES.

• All other ranges resolve NO.

• The official CADECA, Central Bank or anyother exchange rate is not used.
  Only the informal one shown in: https://en.cibercuba.com/tags/cambio-moneda . This website includes a time graph that goes all the way back to 2021

Background

As of January 18, 2026, the dollar is being sold on average at 488 CUP. The Cuban Currency and Finance Observatory emphasizes that the current situation presents increasing risks: inflation driven by unsupported monetary issuance, low capacity of the country to generate real foreign currency, deterioration of tourism , and institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence. The U.S. dollar reached 400 Cuban pesos in August 2025, marking the highest value ever recorded by elTOQUE's Informal Market Representative Rate since its launch in 2021.

Why an informal exchange rate over an official one?

The informal exchange rate differs significantly from the official rate. State companies use a fixed rate of 1 USD = 24 CUP, while banks and exchange houses buy dollars from residents at just 120 CUP per USD. The TRMI reflects median exchange rates drawn from buy-and-sell listings posted in social media groups and online classifieds, and the methodology has been validated by several experts and the UK-based academic journal Applied Economics.

What is the TRMI?
TRMI stands for the "Tasa Representativa del Mercado Informal" — in English:

Informal Market Representative Rate

Here’s what we you should know about it

• It’s published by elTOQUE (https://eltoque.com/tasas-de-cambio-de-moneda-en-cuba-hoy), an independent Cuban news outlet and data project.

• It is derived from a median of actual buy/sell listings for foreign exchange posted in social media, WhatsApp groups, and online classified ads.

• It reflects the real street-level price at which people are trading USD, EUR, and other convertible currencies.

• It’s widely used by Cubans as the go-to benchmark for the real exchange rate because official rates are detached from economic reality.
  
  If you have any questions feel free to leave a comment or DM me!