Resolution criteria

Trump is expected to address the nation at 11 a.m. ET from Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. The market resolves YES if Trump explicitly mentions "Maria Corina Machado" or "Machado" by name during this address. The market resolves NO if the address concludes without such a mention. Resolution will be determined by reviewing official video or transcript of the address.

Background

Trump claimed that the United States carried out airstrikes in Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said she's "absolutely" supportive of President Trump's strategy in the country, calling him "a champion of freedom in this hemisphere". Machado made a daring escape from her country to collect her Nobel Peace Prize in Norway, marking the first time she has been seen in public in almost a year after living in hiding. She was the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and said President Trump deserved it more.

Considerations

The latest Nobel Peace Prize went to Venezuela's opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, whose name the US president did not appear initially to know. Given the timing of Trump's address immediately following the military operation in Venezuela and Machado's prominent role as the leading opposition figure, there is significant context for a potential mention, though Trump's familiarity with her name remains uncertain.