What percentage of shots not taken misses?
8
200แน€1040
2026
66 %
expected
28%
0%
2%
0.1 - 19.9%
2%
20 - 39.9%
4%
40 - 59.9%
2%
60 - 79.9%
2%
80 - 99.9%
59%
100%

the market will resolve whenever I am convinced beyond a reasonable doubt of a specific answer.

Question on if this is a defined quantity:

https://manifold.markets/Ebcc1/is-the-percentage-of-shots-missed-f

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

๐Ÿ’ฏ

reposted

.

Are "shots not taken yet" a subset of "shots not taken"?

Some of "shots not taken yet" could hit (in the future).

Let's say, for the sake of argument, a "shot not taken yet" is a "shot not taken".

Therefore, some "shots not taken" could hit.

If we accept the assumption made above, we could also perform a Fermi estimation to reach the proper percentage for market resolution.

What percentage of all actions/things that will ever be in the future could be classified as shots?

Considerations:

  • Is a "shot of alcohol" a shot? If so, can they miss at all? Is a shot left un-drunk a shot missed? Is a shot that will drunkenly be spilled onto a person's face in a weekend bender a miss?

  • What percentage of women who will ever exist will have the surname "Shots"? Can a woman be taken? Can we alternatively interpret the market title as "What percentage of Shots not taken will be Mrs./Ms. Shots?"?

  • Is asking somebody out on a date considered "shooting their shot"? Is asking somebody out and being turned down because they think you're a pedantic twat who takes a joke too far considered a miss?

  • And so on.

reposted

Can you elaborate what you mean by shots not taken and misses or are you purposefully not specifying that?

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy