the market will resolve whenever I am convinced beyond a reasonable doubt of a specific answer.
Question on if this is a defined quantity:
https://manifold.markets/Ebcc1/is-the-percentage-of-shots-missed-f
People are also trading
If we accept the assumption made above, we could also perform a Fermi estimation to reach the proper percentage for market resolution.
What percentage of all actions/things that will ever be in the future could be classified as shots?
Considerations:
Is a "shot of alcohol" a shot? If so, can they miss at all? Is a shot left un-drunk a shot missed? Is a shot that will drunkenly be spilled onto a person's face in a weekend bender a miss?
What percentage of women who will ever exist will have the surname "Shots"? Can a woman be taken? Can we alternatively interpret the market title as "What percentage of Shots not taken will be Mrs./Ms. Shots?"?
Is asking somebody out on a date considered "shooting their shot"? Is asking somebody out and being turned down because they think you're a pedantic twat who takes a joke too far considered a miss?
And so on.
Can you elaborate what you mean by shots not taken and misses or are you purposefully not specifying that?