The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy’s page on Imprecise Probabilities quotes this “delightfully odd” hypothetical from Adam Elga:

A stranger approaches you on the street and starts pulling out objects from a bag. The first three objects he pulls out are a regular-sized tube of toothpaste, a live jellyfish, and a travel-sized tube of toothpaste. To what degree should you believe that the next object he pulls out will be another tube of toothpaste?

Will the next item be another tube of toothpaste?

This market will resolve to the market’s current PROB% on a date that I have randomly pre-selected (later than April 2nd, well before the end of 2024).