What will be true of xkcd's for September 2nd-September 6th?
What will be true of xkcd's for September 2nd-September 6th?
15
1.4kṀ5148resolved Sep 7
Resolved
YESThe sum of all the digits appearing in the comics (not the title or title text) is even
Resolved
YESThere will be at least one comic that is a graph/chart
Resolved
YESThere will be at least one comic with no stick figures at all
Resolved
YESThe comics will have >=5 panels collectively
Resolved
YESThere will be at least one space-related comic
Resolved
YESMegan will make an appearance
Resolved
NOAll letters in every comic will be uppercase
Resolved
NO@EBurk will show someone around his office at least one of the xkcd comics very shortly after looking at it himself
Resolved
NOPonytail will make an appearance
Resolved
NOThere will be a color other than black or white used (intentional use of gray counts as a distinct color)
Resolved
NOWhite Hat will make an appearance
Resolved
NOThere will be at least one character that represents an actual person
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NOAt least one comic will reference the 2024 U.S. Election, or any of its major participants
Resolved
NOCueball will make >=2 appearances
To make things more interesting, I will reopen after the first and second comics to allow people to bet using this new information, as long as there are no questions regarding how one of the questions should resolve.
I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I have time to resolve and the result has become clear. If an answer is potentially ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A based on the possible consensus there.
Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.