What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, February 23rd, 2024?
61
3.1kṀ4203
resolved Feb 26
Resolved
YES
The comic will have a caption (text above or below the main image)
Resolved
YES
Cueball will make an appearance
Resolved
YES
Megan will make an appearance
Resolved
NO
The comic will have >2.5 panes
Resolved
NO
The comic will have a visible electronic
Resolved
NO
Explain xkcd has multiple proposed interpretations of the comic
Resolved
NO
The letter x is present in the image (Upper or lower case)
Resolved
NO
The comic will have no stick figures
Resolved
NO
An animal (non-human) will be mentioned or depicted
Resolved
NO
The comic will have at least four distinct characters
Resolved
NO
It will mention aliens
Resolved
NO
The creators will state or imply, inside or outside of the comic itself, that AI was used in part or in total to create the image
Resolved
NO
Black Hat will make an appearance
Resolved
NO
There will be no xkcd published
Resolved
NO
Bobby Tables will make an appearance

I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A. If the answer is ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A based on the possible consensus there.

If this market gets a decent bit of activity, I’ll try to make it a regular thing.

Others are free to add options, but I will delete copies, or incredibly vague answers.

I may bet in this market.

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@Qoiuoiuoiu Thanks!

I am going to resolve this question according to the explain xkcd on the following post day, so in this case Monday.

This is getting resolved no unless it is in the comic itself or someone sends me very strong evidence that this was implied or stated elsewhere

bought Ṁ15 YES

This gonna be controversial

@kenakofer I’m guessing you’re assuming that humans count?

@Arky I've edited it to cover that interpretation

@ZacharyParker I disapprove of the "(non-human)" addition edit, I think it should be up to @EBurk to resolve ambiguities, since they are the one we rate at resolution.

I don't know if there's a way to view answer edit history, now the interface seems to imply "(non-human)" was always there.

I don't care much in this particular case, but it's unfortunate that one can edit answers one submits on another's market if there's no accountability mechanism.

bought Ṁ15 NO

@kenakofer In general I think the person who added the answer is allowed to clarify what they intended it to mean if there is ambiguity

@Arky @kenakofer @ZacharyParker it is disappointing that there is no accountability mechanism, but for the most part, I’m fine for people to clarify their own questions, and I appreciate people asking about possible ambiguities ahead of time, so I don’t hear issues after the fact.

@EBurk Looks like there's a one hour timer for non-mods to edit. Seems pretty reasonable, I just will keep in mind that recently submitted options are a trade-at-your-own-risk situation. And like you say, clarifying before trading is a great way to avoid drama.

@kenakofer Apologies, I'm used to in most markets where I participate, markets being resolved as N/A when there is too much ambiguity and I realized my original market lacked clarity. Sorry for any difficulty that caused.

@ZacharyParker No worries, I'm glad I got to learn new things about this feature on Manifold!

reposted

Fun market!

@jks Would you like this to be interpreted as the xkcd is posted late, or there is in fact no xkcd published that could reasonably be associated with the given date?

@EBurk My intent was a strict reading of the calendar date. If the title read "for Friday, February 23rd" instead of "on Friday, February 23rd", then that would change things, IMO.

@EBurk Incidentally, how often does he post them late?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@jks that's a good distinction, I will make sure to interpret this according to your condition

@jks I believe it has happened, but not definitely is not a common thing. I wanted clarify now because I want to make sure running this market is fun, and if I have to keep markets open for a while and go back later to resolve them it will be less fun.

@jks To give me a consistent condition in case there is ever concern: Randall Munroe is last listed as living in GMT-5 (Wikipedia, I'm not a creep), so I will use GMT 05:00:00 of the following day as my cut off for late, and will use https://tools.keycdn.com/curl to check the Last-Modified time of https://xkcd.com/.

@EBurk Sounds great! Thank you for asking me to clarify.

bought Ṁ5 NO

statistics tip: Black Hat only appeared in 6% of comics until now, and Robert'); DROP TABLE Students;-- only in 0.2% of comics

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