To make things more interesting, I will reopen after the first and second comics to allow people to bet using this new information, as long as there are no questions regarding how one of the questions should resolve.
I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I have time to resolve and the result has become clear. If an answer is potentially ambiguous, I will wait to see thoughts posted on explain xkcd, and will either resolve or conclude N/A based on the possible consensus there.
Others are free to add options. I will delete duplicates and ask regarding resolution criteria for potentially vague options, or questions that I am not sure how to resolve. If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.
I may bet in this market, but do not bet on questions about myself. On debatable questions, I will ask for trader input, and will put my reasoning once I come to a conclusion.
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Figure Counting:
A figure is counted as a separate picture, even if it is a duplicate of another figure.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Small Caps Interpretation: Treated as uppercase unless clearly typeset as lowercase letters.
Current Resolution Status: Inclined to resolve as N/A and may reopen based on further evidence or upcoming comics.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
The market will be resolved on Friday.
Possible outcomes are limited to N/A or NO.
If the resolution is clear based on Friday's comic, it will be set to NO.
If ambiguity remains, the resolution will be N/A.
1,000
3.00@traders Thoughts about the "K" in kilowatt hours in today's comic? I believe it looks distinct from the "K" in kitchen in this same comic, and it would traditionally be lowercase. I am willing to hear other arguments, but currently I am leaning lowercase
@EBurk I agree it looks somewhat distinct from the other "K", but more because the crossing point is higher up, rather than the vertical line being longer which would indicate a lowercase "k", and it seems this could just be because all different instances of the same letter have slightly different shapes. The "K" itself is still ambiguous, but what I think clarifies it is that the "H" to the right is just as small but clearly still a capital "H", which seems to indicate that "K" and "H" are small caps instead of lowercase letters.
@JensFiederer (not that Serge is wrong about the small caps, just that there is clearly a case distinction, and I would call that lowercase manifested by using small caps)
@JensFiederer I think small caps are definitely caps, not lower case. That's how it's been handled in previous markets. XKCD does sometimes have actual lower case lettering.
@JensFiederer Ah I get your argument, I agree that obviously the unit kWh is normally written with lowercase letters, and that is what the comic is trying to represent, so the question is whether the market is about whether the comment represents text that is supposed to contain lowercase letters, or whether the typesetting of the comic itself actually uses lowercase letters.
Here's some previous discussion of this question, for reference https://manifold.markets/EBurk/what-will-be-true-of-xkcds-for-july-ot9n1bndtj#qg90fkd2h1
@SisyphosDale @JensFiederer @MugaSofer As you have said, in the past, I have resolved "small caps" to be uppercase and we only fail "all letters are uppercase" if there is clearly a typeset lowercase letter. One of the common instances of this is when the mathematical "e" appears.
It appears to me that the vertical stem reaches a higher point, but it is not as significant as I would normally expect for a lower case "k". I will not be taking the time to look at a bunch of previous comics to see how previous instances of the lowercase "k" compare. If someone wants to do this, I will consider it as evidence.
My current inclination is to N/A and reopen if no one has strong inclinations that we must resolve one way or the other. Alternatively, I can leave the entire market unresolved, and we can see if Friday's comic renders the point moot, and then N/A later if there are no objections.
@EBurk >we can see if Friday's comic renders the point moot, and then N/A later if there are no objections
Wouldn't this make it so the option can effectively only resolve NO (i.e., that there were lowercase letters)?
I think the 'H' being small caps is sufficient evidence to me that the 'K' (or 'k') is also small caps that I'm happy for today to count as uppercase (even though I hold a large stake in it being lowercase).
@EBurk I also think that the H makes it pretty clear that it's small caps, but I'm perhaps a little biased given that I have a lot on NO. The K/k does look a little weird. I'd be fine with N/Aing it.
@binarypigeon Since you are the largest investor in lowercase and are willing to count the "k" as uppercase, I will reopen. I am also amenable to the small caps argument with the "kWh."
That being said, here are my thoughts on resolving these markets:
I would feel comfortable not reopening the market and waiting until Friday to resolve and then only choosing either N/A or NO because in my market description, "I will reopen after the first and second comics to allow people to bet using this new information, as long as there are no questions regarding how one of the questions should resolve."
I feel comfortable doing this because I believe that once all of the necessary data to resolve the market is collected, any question that was originally asked should resolve to YES or NO if there is an obvious answer, and only N/A if there is still debate. That is, if Wednesday's comic is questionable but Friday's is clear, since people are betting on the overall week they should be rewarded/penalized on the week, and nobody should get off easy or lose big because halfway through the data looked weird.
@EBurk I didn't bet on this one, so I was purely offering my own interpretation, unburdened by the history of the past. No dog in this fight, so happy with whatever!
(But I'm unhappy with the general relationship between Notifications and Comments, clicking on the notifications about comment replies kept bringing me to the very top of this item ("What will be true") in which the actual comments were not visible even when I scrolled to the bottom - issue for Manifold techs, not this market)
@EBurk Does this count duplicate stick figures? Eg, does https://xkcd.com/3031/ count as 3 stick figures or 6?