What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris Elected

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resolved Jan 20

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I will "UPGRADE" this to a PLUS Market once I get more Mana (Unless a generous user upgrades it themselves before me).

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO

Top U.S. general in the Middle East as U.S. and Israel prepare for possible Iran attack -AXIOS

Harris Picks Walz AS VP [image]

Blinken says Israel has agreed to US proposal to close remaining gaps on ceasefire deal and calls on Hamas to do the same -CNN

Protests In Chicago Near Democratic Convention - LIVE Breaking News Coverage DNC (https://www.youtube.com/embed/-8xFxvRav4Y)

Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ‘There’s not a deal in the making’

It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond

Harris concedes to Trump

Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain (Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)

White House believes Lebanon truce will put pressure on Hamas to negotiate for Gaza ceasefire, official says From CNN's Sam Fossum

Hamas and Israel ‘are talking seriously’ about a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, source says

Congress Has Certified Election Results : Trump 312 / Harris 226

Wars in Ukraine and Gaza: Trump said Russia’s war in Ukraine could “escalate” and that it is “much more complicated.” Trump also warned that if hostages being held in Gaza are not released by his inauguration, “all hell will break out” in the Middle East.

Hamas says ceasefire-hostage agreement with Israel is in "final stages" From CNN's Abeer Salman Talks with Israel to reach a ceasefire-hostage agreement in Gaza have reached their “final stages,” Hamas said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that it hoped the latest round of negotiations will conclude with “a clear and comprehensive agreement.” Hamas also said it had informed Palestinian factions about the progress made talks and that the leaders of the factions were satisfied with the developments. “The leadership of the movement and the various factions emphasized the continuation of communication and consultation,” Hamas said.

(Please read the description, since this potential ceasefire may overlap awaiting Trumps Inauguration and the 10 days required for Israel/Hamas criteria, as of now the only way this resolves to Israel/Hamas would be if the ceasefire continues and Trumps inauguration is delayed to a date after day 10 of the ceasefire) -- Israel and Hamas agree to Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, source says The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a source briefed on the talks tells CNN. Under the deal, which is yet to be formally announced, Hamas and its allied militant groups are expected to release 33 hostages seized from Israel during the attacks of October 7, 2023. In return, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The agreement would deliver the first reprieve from war for the people of Gaza in more than a year, and only the second since the Israeli bombardment began. Once confirmed, it is expected that the deal will allow Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza and there would be a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the strip, where residents have long faced dire humanitarian conditions.

Netanyahu delays cabinet vote on Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal and hostage release (Washington Post) 37 min ago An Israeli cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas was delayed Thursday morning, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the militant group of “reneging” on parts of the agreement. Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet would not convene until Hamas accepted all elements of the deal. A Hamas official said on social media that the group is committed to the agreement announced Wednesday. Neither provided any further details.

100%99.2%

Trump Re-elected

0.6%

Israel/Hamas Ceasefire

0.0%

Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire

0.2%

Harris Elected

What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris Elected

This market only resolves 1 answer

Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First

To Meet Re-Election:
- Harris must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
- Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:
- Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine
- Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
- Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
- Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
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MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET
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