Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if Israel's current military operations against Iran continue beyond 14 days from their initiation on June 13, 2025, meaning active military engagements persist past June 27, 2025. The market resolves to "No" if these operations conclude on or before June 27, 2025. Official statements from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the Israeli government, or reputable news organizations will serve as sources for determining the duration of the operations.

Background

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a significant military operation, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. The operation aimed to neutralize perceived threats from Iran's nuclear program and missile capabilities. Key Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists were reported killed in the initial strikes. The operation was described by Israeli officials as potentially lasting several days to weeks. (axios.com)