Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5 in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolves YES if there is public knowledge of the existence of a LLM known as GPT-4.5 by OpenAI

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predicted YES

Rotten apples 😢

if you ask GPT 4.0 if it's running on GPT-4.5-turbo without a '?' it says it is, but if you add a '?' then it says that it is not.

bought Ṁ0 of YES


bought Ṁ50 YES

@Soli I am at the point of no return

bought Ṁ500 of YES

roon(OpenAI employee) says there's no 4.5 and laughs at us YES betters:

come on guys, get to work keeping our prediction markets accurate. why is this so high?

bought Ṁ10 YES at 43%
bought Ṁ100 NO from 43% to 41%
predicted NO

@Mira ...she said, immediately after buying Ṁ500 YES

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Mira I don't know what kind of insider info you think you have, but it seems ridiculous for multiple OpenAI employees (including Altman) to say 4.5. isn't coming out and then a few days later announce it.

i.e. nothing is coming out in December, even if it is almost ready.

predicted YES

@DavidBolin you should buy this market down then, since it resolves a couple days earlier and you can compound your winnings twice off the same prediction: /Mira/will-openai-give-us-a-christmas-pre

predicted YES

@DavidBolin I agree. It's hard to imagine Sam Altman would not be consistently candid about this.

2 traders bought Ṁ60 YES
predicted YES

I need you all to stop observing this market so it can resolve yes.

You can find the "unwatch" button under the three dots at the top right:

predicted YES

@Joshua 🤣

bought Ṁ25 of YES

somewhat related market

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 NO at 45%
predicted NO

@Soli extracting ChatGPT's system prompt is an easy thing, and it doesn't mention these details. These responses are either due to custom instructions (which end up as part of the system prompt), or they're hallucinations, or they're based on information in the training data. There isn't anywhere else such information can be - ChatGPT can't introspect what model is being called in the OpenAI API when it runs.

I'm not able to reproduce these sorts of responses, even after trying many times, and to the extent I trust some people aren't using custom instructions (or that there's chat history they're leaving out of their screenshots), that is reasonable evidence IMHO that some people are seeing a different model.

Of course it could be a regular knowledge update rather than actually GPT-4.5.

Even if it was GPT-4.5, there's not much reason to think it would know these details. Why would that be in its training data? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for OpenAI to intentionally put it there, and I suspect even the responses I get saying it's gpt4-turbo are just it putting two and two together from its system prompt saying it's based on GPT-4, plus the fact that its training data contained info that suggests model names follow that format.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@chrisjbillington FYI the "gpt-4.5-turbo" result reproduces easily for me. I am curious what's causing that, even though I don't think it's currently running on 4.5.

predicted NO

@Jacy I would guess a model update of some kind is rolling out (a knowledge update or otherwise), which could mean that the most likely hallucination is slightly different to before, for reasons more or less unrelated to the actual content of the training data in the update.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I should probably stop sinking thousands of mana entirely on priors into topics where I've done no research

bought Ṁ65 of NO

@AndrewG I actually think people don't value their priors enough. I looked at the evidence and it's all unsubstantiated rumors and people circlejerking themselves into believing that GPT 4.5 is real. I sank all my balance into these markets and I would sink more if I could.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

what did mira see?

predicted NO

@Shump My understanding is that the only question is around insider info. I don't think anyone takes the Twitter screenshot itself seriously.

predicted NO

@Jacy I think people are mostly trading on chatgpt calling the api version chatgpt-4.5-turbo and on claims that it's somehow smarter recently

predicted NO

@Shump yeah, worth confirming with @DylanSlagh that ChatGPT referring to GPT-4.5 (or gpt-4.5-turbo/etc.) won't resolve this YES, right? E.g., https://chat.openai.com/share/74a887b5-216c-459b-add5-d83db9ab0c45

predicted YES

@Jacy Correct, ChatGPT saying something about itself is not evidence


predicted YES