Sam Kriss recently published an article in Harpers, which quotes Scott Alexander as stating to himself "I will open the crackers so you will have crackers and be happy" at a party. Scott disputes this, claiming he recalls it being addressed to his child.
If any third source at the party corroborates or denies the quote and/or the context it was uttered in by this Sunday, the market resolves. If not, I will open a poll and resolve the market accordingly.
Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on the context in which the quote was uttered, not just whether the words were spoken. For example, if evidence emerges that contradicts the claimed context (such as the children already being in bed), the market would resolve No.
1,000@kmajc I thought of that as falling under "accuracy", but good point, I should specify. Since this has just opened, I added that to the description.
I'll use the word "context" instead of "adressed" as that seems less subjective. Ex: if someone new comes forward claiming the kids were already in bed at that point, it resolves no.