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MANIFOLD
Do the recent deaths/disappearances of NASA, nuclear research, & defense-related scientists suggest something sinister?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ518
Dec 31
18%
chance

Description:

This market follows the investigation into a series of mysterious disappearances and deaths involving elite U.S. aerospace, nuclear, and defense researchers. As of April 21, 2026, the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability has formally intervened, citing a potential "sinister connection" between at least 10-11 high-level personnel who have vanished or died under suspicious circumstances. On April 16th, Trump said, quote:Pretty serious stuff…hopefully, I don’t know, coincidence, whatever you want to call it. But some of them were very important people, and we’re gonna look at it over the next short period.”

Resolution criteria:

  1. Any malevolent conspiracy by EOY 2026 qualifies (by definition, a conspiracy requires multiple conspirators).

  2. A connection must be found between at least any two of the eleven cases that either directly caused or contributed to the death/disappearance.

  3. The identification of a conspiracy must come from new information; mere pronouncements from authorities or opinions are not sufficient.

    Resolves according to relevant information released by the President, the House Oversight Committee, the FBI, or any other federal agency. A lack of relevant new information resolves NO.

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bought Ṁ25 YES

Any "malevolent" connection between any 2 of those deaths is "yes"?

@RemiRampin correct. Anything - this is my attempt to broaden it beyond the obvious scenario of repeated murders/assassinations. Could be kidnapping instead, incitement of suicide, blackmail, whatever else I'm not thinking of.

See here for a related market (on one of the 11) where potential criminal acts or harms do not require a conspiracy: