Will Gonzalo Lira remain alive and free for the next 30 days?
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119
230
Jan 15
8%
chance

US / Chilean citizen, pro Russia YouTuber living in Ukraine recently got bail and has posted that he is making a dash out of Ukraine (jumping his hearing August 2) -- Do you think over the next 30 days he will remain alive and free?

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@traders Reopening in hopes that someone will find and post the answer. Note that this is about the Aug 1 - Sep 1 period, not more recent news. Please post a source in the comments and I will resolve!

bought Ṁ17 of YES

Ignore this (I really should stop trying to snipe closing markets while I'm high)

sold Ṁ389 of YES

@dgga I am stupid and completely missed the 'free' part of the question, he was not free

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@EvanDaniel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gonzalo_Lira#Criminal_prosecution From here you can see he was captured trying to flee the country on the 2nd, and re-detained on the 4th of August. He apparently died in January while still imprisoned as a political prisoner. So during the 30 days this market refers to he was alive, but not free, so this market should resolve NO

@DushyantM Did he?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

How does this resolve if there is no news?