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The last surprise rate hike happened in 1994 (https://www.onebridgewealth.com/content/Abriefmodernhistoryofsurprisefedannouncements), although surprise rate cuts happen pretty often. That gives a base rate of once every 28 years at best or something like 0.2% chance in the next two weeks. Moreover, the next meeting is literally November 1, so last week of October seems particularly unlikely. So even 3% seems too high.

@wilsonkime Good data. I think it's even less likely than the base rate because if there is some black swan event that calls for a faster pace of hikes, they could just telegraph that the next hike will be 1%, 1.25%, or whatever and I think that would achieve the same effect in almost all scenarios.

Here's an article on how back in 1994 Fed communications to the public were much much more limited than they are now: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/effects-of-fomc-communications-before-policy-tightening-in-1994-and-2004-20150924.html